零钱茶馆
The Current Situation of Buying a House in the US
美国买房正当时
If you can borrow at 4.5% or 5% over 30 years，many purchases start to look appealing. Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.
If that happens，your monthly payments will be low and you’d get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That’s a double win.
Inflation isn’t guaranteed： The bond markets are only predicting about 1.4% inflation over the next 10 years，and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation，or falling prices，remains a danger. Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.
Yet if you had to bet from here，you’d bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle. That’s the classic recipe.
When it comes to house prices，it’s true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.
A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal suggested prices nationwide still weren’t cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.
Homes were much cheaper，say，as recently as the 1970s.
Furthermore： the bigger the bubble，the bigger the bust. Considering how sharply home prices climbed from 2002 to 2006，one might expect real estate to end up really，really cheap before bottoming out. And you wouldn’t expect a quick rebound either. Japan still hasn’t recovered from 1989.
But if you are thinking of buying a home，here’s the more positive news： While overall market averages may not be as cheap as you might have expected，you can probably ignore them.
There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels. The indices are masking a huge disparity in prices.
Even the National Association of Realtors concedes distressed sales including foreclosures and short sales are closing about 20% below“normal” market rates.
Aggressive buyers are finding some simply terrific deals. And they’re paying with cheap debt，too.
Default rates are rising. Lots of sellers are forced.
如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率获得30年的贷款的话，那么，许多购房计划看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下来会出现较高的通货膨胀的话，就更是如此了。
如果发生这种情况，你的月度供款会较低，你可以在一定时间内用贬值的美元逐渐偿还掉本金。这真是两全其美。
通货膨胀不一定会发生：债券市场对未来10年的通货膨胀率预期只有1.4%，而BCA Research最近提醒客户，通货紧缩的危险依然存在。失业率仍在上升，近期的工资水平实际在下降。
不过，如果你现在必须打个赌，你应该预计到一定时候会发生通货膨胀。政府现在有大量赤字，印钞机正在全速运转。这是传统的应对方法。
至于说房价，的确，它跌得可能不像你期待的那么多。
Financial Analysts Journal最近的一个分析显示，以房价与家庭收入比来衡量，与历史水平相比，全美国范围内的房价仍不便宜。
比如在七十年代，住房价格要便宜得多。
此外，泡沫越大，破裂时的破坏也越大。看看2002～2006年房价的攀升速度吧，人们会预计房地产最终触底前会非常、非常便宜。而且你也不要指望能够迅速出现回升。日本到现在也没从1989年的泡沫破裂中恢复过来。
但是，如果你在考虑购买住房，这里有一个较激励人的消息：虽然总体市场平均水平或许并不像期望的那么便宜，但你可以忽略它。
有大量交易是以远低于官方平均水平的价格成交的。房价指数掩盖了具体价格上的巨大差异。
就连全美房地产协会(National Association of Realtors)也承认，廉价销售──包括止赎房和债务减免房销售──的销售价格比“正常”市价低约20%。
大胆的买家发现了一些好得不得了的交易。而且，他们是以低成本的借款支付房款。
违约率在上升。许多卖家都是被迫的。
核心单词
purchase [5pE：tFEs] v. 购买，进货
devalued [di5rAljud] adj. 减值的，贬值的
throttle [5WrCtl] v. 扼杀，压制
average [5AvEridV] n. 平均分，成功率
disparity [dis5pAriti] n. 不同；不等
terrific [tE5rifik] adj. 极度的，极大的
财经知识一点通
本金(principal)
在财务管理中称为现值，是指未来某一时间点上的一定量现金折合为现在的价值。比如存入银行一笔现金100元，年利率为复利10％，经过3年后一次性取出本利共133.10元。本例中100元为本金，33.10元为利息，扣除利息税后的款项即为利润。利润又分毛利润与净利润。
泡沫经济（bubble economy）
指因投机交易极度活跃，金融证券、房地产等的市场价格脱离实际价值大幅上涨，造成表面繁荣的经济现象。简单来说就是价格脱离价值。
翻译行不行
If that happens，your monthly payments will be low and you’d get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars.
Yet if you had to bet from here，you’d bet on inflation in due course.
There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels.
